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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.